PHY2054 - Summer, 2011

Estimating your grade and/or pass-fail chances

Every term,  some of you ask us to tell you the grade you are going to make in our classes.
This is impossible.
Why? Because we are not clairvoyant: we can't predict or foresee the scores you'll make on the exams and quizzes not yet taken!!!!

And some ask questions like: "To pass the course, what score do I need on the final exam?" 
Or "To make a grade of ___, what can I do?"  We can't answer those either, for the same obvious reasons!

However:
If you want to make your own estimate of your final score and 'guesstimate' your approximate grade or pass-fail chances, here is a way to proceed.
It's what I would do if you came by and insisted that I make an estimate.
BUT........

Warning! The following is for your estimating purposes only.   This involves guesses that may be wrong........

Absolutely  NO guarantees!

1. First, review the "Exams and Grading" section of the course syllabus to remind yourself of the weighting of each component.
Note that test/exam scores have to be normalized for the 120-point (max) grading scale that we are using.
Here's how to do it:

2. Muliply your Exam 1 score x 25/19 [= 1.32] & your Exam 2 score x 25/18 [= 1.39].  This normalizes each to its 25-point basis.   Add these two numbers together.

3. Make a guess as to your final exam score (16 points, max). Avoid over-optimism: less than 50% of a typical class improves their average on the final exam!  

4. Multiply your final exam-score-guess by 1.57 to normalize it to the 25-point basis.

5. Add the results you got in Steps 2 and 4, above, giving you a number < 75.

6. To this number add your estimated discussion/recitation score (maximum, 25 points)

7. Add to this your estimated WebAssign score (maximum, 15 points).

8. Add your estimated h-itt (in-lecture quiz) score (maximum, 5 points).

9. The result should be a number less than 120. This is your 'guesstimated'  final score.

The above included several guesses (count 'em)!    Judge its reliability accordingly!

10.  Now, please refer to the letter-grade "curve" given in the syllabus (just below the point-weightings) which should give you a rough idea of what letter-grade to expect. The 'plus/minus' grade-score ranges are 'fine-tuned' after the totals are averaged and aren't given; they are usually (but not always!) ± 1 or 2 points each in the regions between the whole-letter grades.

The C-D cutoff is rarely below 60 points (50%) .

On the optimistic side, the fraction of previous classes earning grades less than C is usually less than 20%. Again, no promises, but that's the track record.

Our Advice: Study hard and plan to do your very best on the final exam.

Most of you are going to pass.  Many of you will make good grades!